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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Soriano or Swisher?
I have this theory that it takes at least one generation for social progress to be achieved, as it takes at least that long for the ignorant and the biased to die. So, peace in the mideast? Not for at least 20 years (if ever). End of racism in America? Not for at least 20 years (if ever). End of separation talk in Quebec? Not for at least 20 years. The progress of sabermetrics?
Otherwise everything is nonsense, starting with Swisher over Soriano. That’s reminiscent of when some goofs actually blurted that during their primes, Mark Grace was a better first baseman to have on a team than Frank Thomas. What’s next, Pamela Anderson over Meryl Streep? Soriano is more valuable than Swisher, who is a good player. Soriano might not be a chemistry guy, cheerleader or jokester, but he’s a better player.
Marcel has Soriano forecast with a wOBA(*) of .360, and Swisher with .357. Fans think that Soriano and Swisher are both roughly equal as fielders (slight edge to Sori). UZR thinks they are roughly equal as outfielders (slight edge to Swisher). You are talking about two roughly equal players. And even if wOBA is too fancy, Soriano’s Runs Participated In (RPI, or R+RBI-HR) based on Marcel is 133 in 581 PA, while Swisher is 137 in 597. Pro-rated, that’s the exact same thing.
Looks like we’ve got to wait 20 years for this kind of crap to not being written. If ever.
(*) If you don’t understand wOBA, treat it exactly like OBP, with a SLG of about 25% higher than OBP.
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