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Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Smoltz’s Five Homeruns
Very good stuff from Rob Neyer:
Last year, Smoltz struck out 8.4 and walked 2.1 hitters per nine innings, both figures slightly better than his career marks. He did allow 1.3 home runs per nine innings, which is roughly twice his career rate (0.7) ... but that’s just five home runs. If Smoltz had allowed six homers rather than 11, he’d have hit his career rate exactly. Which is, by the way, almost exactly what he did in both 2007 and 2008.
Those five “extra” home runs aren’t meaningless, and last year Smoltz wasn’t throwing as hard as he had in the previous few seasons. But people are going to look at his 6.35 ERA last season and assume he had to retire, and I just don’t think that’s true.
Crash Davis:
Twenty-five hits a year in 500 at bats is 50 points. Okay? There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks--you get one extra flare a week--just one--a gork, a ground ball with eyes, a dying quail-- just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium!
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