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Monday, July 13, 2009
Situational Hitting and Pitching
Here are the per PA (excluding IBB, SH) numbers for 1999-2002, but I generated it with an old source of data. I should rerun it at some point. Treat it as 99% accurate.
The sum of the frequency of all events (Single through OtherOuts columns) will total to 1.000 at each base out state.
The state “10” means runner on 1b, 0 outs. The second digit is the out. The first digit is:4=1b,2b; 5=1b,3b; 6=2b,3b; 7=BL; 8=empty.
I also included the IBB and SH, so those numbers represent the “ratio” of IBB to PAs that exclude IBB and SH.
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The HR rate drops by 20-30% in these base/out states:
2b, 0 outs
3b, less than 2 outs
2b/3b, 1,2 outs
The BABIP is lowest for these states for each of these outs:
at 0 outs: 2b, and it’s not even close
at 1 out: 2b, and it’s not even close
at 2 outs: 1b/2b, followed closely by 2b and bases loaded
It’s clear that with 2b and 0 outs something is happening. However, we can go through all 24 states and something is happening in each of them. That’s called situational hitting and situational pitching.
For example, with runner on 1b and 2b open, and less than 2 outs, BABIP shoots up. In the less than 2 outs category, the highest BABIP is with runner on 1B only, followed closely by runners on 1B/3B. Clearly, having the runner at 1B means there’s a hole on the right side. In The Book, we showed how LHH take the most advantage of this situation, as you would expect for pull hitters to take advantage of the hole.
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Here’s the data:
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