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Monday, February 08, 2010
SIERA
Matt and Eric introduce their metric. A correction:
Nate Silver invented QERA back in 2006 for Baseball Prospectus to adjust for a few issues with FIP and xFIP, and while he referred to the stat as a toy, it represented a big step upward in the methodology of estimators.... QERA has another problem of its own, in that GB% is really GB/Ball in Play (or, GB/BIP), while BB% and K% are measured per batters faced (SO/PA and BB/PA) ...Further, while QERA picks up some of the interaction between walk, strikeout, and ground-ball rates, it does not necessarily weight them correctly
Good for Matt and Eric for noting the two problems with QERA. I dispute the big/upward claim however. Also, while FIP has a glossary page, “tRA” is unlinked. A BPro reader will have no idea what it is.
Anyway, here it is:
SIERA = 6.262 – 18.055*(SO/PA) + 11.292*(BB/PA) – 1.721*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) +10.169*((SO/PA)^2) – 7.069*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 9.561*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 4.027*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)
I’ll need a few hours to test this to see why it works, when it breaks down, and how much of a gain we’re getting over FIP, xFIP and tRA.
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