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Thursday, February 24, 2011
Should you bet the under on high-ranked teams?
I compared the newly released BPro Odds against the Vegas odds and came up with this:
Vegas Bpro Over/Under Team
97.0 91.3 Under Philadelphia Phillies
96.0 93.5 Under Boston Red Sox
91.0 91.4 Over New York Yankees
88.5 87.0 Under Atlanta Braves
88.5 90.4 Over San Francisco Giants
88.5 85.6 Under Texas Rangers
87.5 83.1 Under Colorado Rockies
87.5 85.8 Under St. Louis Cardinals
87.0 82.4 Under Cincinnati Reds
87.0 83.8 Under Minnesota Twins
86.0 83.3 Under Tampa Bay Rays
85.0 77.2 Under Los Angeles Angels
84.5 85.2 Over Milwaukee Brewers
84.5 83.6 Under Chicago White Sox
83.5 83.9 Over Detroit Tigers
82.5 83.2 Over Oakland Athletics
82.0 87.3 Over Los Angeles Dodgers
82.0 80.1 Under Chicago Cubs
81.5 83.9 Over Florida Marlins
78.5 78.8 Over New York Mets
75.5 79.2 Over San Diego Padres
75.5 74.3 Under Toronto Blue Jays
74.5 80.3 Over Baltimore Orioles
73.5 67.5 Under Houston Astros
72.0 73.6 Over Arizona Diamondbacks
72.0 69.3 Under Washington Nationals
71.0 74.6 Over Cleveland Indians
70.0 69.0 Under Seattle Mariners
70.0 68.6 Under Kansas City Royals
65.5 71.5 Over Pittsburgh Pirates
Overall, you should bet the Under on 17 of the 30 teams (don’t forget, the mean forecast Vegas has is 81.6 wins, rather than 81.0).
However, if we break it up by the top 10, middle 10, bottom 10 teams using the Vegas forecasts, you get this breakdown as to how often to bet the unders:
Vegas forecasts at least 87 wins? Bet under 8 of 10 times
Vegas forecasts 78 to 86 wins? Bet under 4 of 10 times
Vegas forecasts at most 76 wins? Bet under 5 of 10 times
This is based only on 2010 and only based on BPro’s evaluation of true talent for each team as of today. An additional variable is that a team in the playoff hunt may trade prospects to increase their talent level throughout the season.
So, what to do? That’s the Tangotiger Challenge of the Day (of which they have been woefully un-taken). Someone should repeat what I just did, but for past seasons. Use MGL’s and Chone’s and Marcel’s and BPro’s past forecasts, compare to Vegas forecasts and compare to actual results, and find out if there is a bias. Can we bet the under on Vegas-forecasted playoff-level teams?
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