THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Should high HR pitchers pitch in low HR parks?

Buster Olney wrote this the other day (on ESPN.com):

“Livan Hernandez,” said a talent evaluator Saturday evening. “I’m surprised that nobody’s talking about him, because he’s out there [on the trade market].”

O.K., let’s fortget about the fact that this “talent evaluator” should probably be evaluating HIS talent as an evaluator, and that no one is talking about Livan because Livan sucks at this point in his career.

“The light bulb goes on: great postseason experience, minimal financial obligation (he’s making $7 million this season, and his contract runs out at the end of this year), a guy who has always taken the ball (nine straight seasons of 30 or more starts, and he’s got 20 starts so far this year). He is not an ace, he gives up a lot of hits, but he will generally keep a good offensive team in games.”

Let’s also forget about Olney writing that “he will generally keep a good offensive team in games.” (Isn’t that true about any bad pitcher?)

“The D-backs are fading, have the minor league arms to take his spot in the rotation for the last two months—and Livan is not really a good fit for them now, anyway, because he is not a shut-down kind of pitcher and they are struggling to score runs. The cost of trading for Hernandez would presumably not be that high.”

More garbage from Olney.  Fading?  Last time I looked, they were 1.5 games out of first!  Struggling to score runs and he is not a shut-down pitcher?  I don’t have to tell anyone on this blog that a good pitcher is good for any team and a bad pitcher is bad for any team, regardless of their ofense, although I suspect that there are minor differences in the value (above or below replacement) of a pitcher depending upon his team’s offense.

“He makes a lot of sense for a team like Atlanta, or a team like the Mets (where he could team with his brother, Orlando), or maybe the Phillies, although he would give up a lot of homers in their park.”

More garbage, but what I want to talk about is the last part of this sentence.  Do pitchers who give up a lot of home runs do worse in a home run park (than other pitchers or as compared to a neutral or low HR park)? 

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