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Saturday, June 19, 2010
Should a starter who is pitching a shutout stay in the game?
In one of the other threads we discussed whether you want a mediocre (or worse) pitcher batting in the 6th or 7th inning of a close game when he has been pitching well, at least in terms of runs allowed. The situation we were discussing was 1st and 2nd in the bottom of the 6th of a 1-0 game (the batting team winning), one out, and the pitcher due up. I think it was Hammels of the Rockies, an average at best starter. He was up there bunting, which with one out, is not much better than just conceding at out. Obviously you are giving up quite a bit in offensive WE by allowing him to hit or bunt (actually hitting is usually better for a pitcher, unless he is just an awful hitter). Hammels was pitching a shutout through 6. The question is what kind of a pitcher is a starter in the 7th inning when he has been pitching a shutout (or some semblance of a very good game), as compared to an average inning for him, and compared to bringing in a reliever.
Peter Jensen suggested that when a starter has been pitching a shutout through 6, even if he is not a great pitcher, he pitches lights out in the 7th inning, the equivalent of around 1.5 runs per 9, which is better than the best pitchers in baseball, by far. 1.5 rp 9 is around .17 runs per inning of course.
I said in that thread that I was skeptical of Peter’s findings, but that I would accept it at face value, and that I would research it myself.
Here is what I found:
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