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Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Scouting Report on Managers
Hey Tom,
I’m an avid reader of the blog.
Have you ever considered a fans scouting report for managers? I know that mgl consistently hammers the point that we have very little ability to statistically judge the value of a manager, but all avid fans have their own ideas on the subject, no? We make those subjective judgments all the time.
A survey could include fan ratings on all sorts of individual managerial tendencies (How good is he at recognizing talent? How good is he at constructing an optimal lineup? How wisely does he employ the bunt, ace reliever, pinch hitter, platoon advantage? …). Hell, you could even ask how many wins a manager was worth relative to an “average” manager, or even an “optimal” manager during a given season. We may not trust the results, but it would at least be interesting (and, imo, better than the void we have now).
I am of the opinion that the wisdom of crowds is useful in addressing not only the questions for which we have a decent baseline for comparison (How good is a player defensively? Who will be the next president?), but also those for which we have almost no “authoritative” information (What will happen to unemployment in the next year? How will the Earth’s temperature change in the next 10 years?). Moreover, answers for the latter type will by definition be more unbiased, if not more correct.
If you have addressed the issue before and I missed it, I apologize.
Keep up the good work, B.
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