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Monday, January 11, 2010
Scoring rates in the NHL, by time/differential
Gabe, and I altered the headers a bit:
Period/time "home+2" "home+1" "tied" "away+1" "away+2"
1st period
000-600 2.63/2.41 2.32/2.53 2.27/2.61 2.25/2.70 2.50/2.29
600-1200 2.49/2.47 2.46/2.80 2.37/2.80 2.28/3.06 2.67/2.53
2nd period
1200-1800 3.06/3.04 2.96/2.82 2.65/3.01 2.76/3.28 2.86/2.99
1800-2400 3.10/3.08 2.92/2.95 2.84/3.05 2.69/3.14 3.05/3.13
3rd period
2400-3000 2.96/2.84 2.47/2.69 2.47/2.76 2.29/2.98 2.34/2.81
3000-3500 2.56/3.14 2.61/2.57 2.29/2.51 2.16/2.90 2.28/3.12
3500-3600 5.47/11.4 5.36/11.8 1.53/2.15 11.6/5.91 13.7/4.91
The numbers in the first column are in seconds, so that means each row is 10 minutes, and each two rows is one period. The last row was split into last 100 seconds because of the pulling-the-goalie strategy. The first number is goals scored by away team and the second is by the home team.
Let’s start with the tie game: the more the game is tied, the more teams try to score a goal. Until the third period starts, and then they try less and less to score. At this point, they are playing for the tie, because they know they are guaranteed to get one point. And in the last 100 seconds, they simply aren’t even trying any more. At the peak, the end of the second period to the low, the end of the third period, the home team scores 30% less goals while the away team scores 45% fewer goals. So, both teams are playing for the tie, but the road team is going out of its way to play for the tie. The NHL should immediately change it so that the winning team in regulation (and maybe OT) gets 3 points not 2. Shooutouts wins get 2 points and the shootout loss gets 1 point.
For the down by 1 and up by 1: whichever team is ahead is going to give up more goals than they allow. When home team is up by 1, they score 2.53. When they are down by 1 (away+1), the home team scores 2.70. This is true throughout the game (excluding the last 100 seconds). Basically, teams sit on their leads and/or the other teams plays more open.
For the up by 2, down by 2: there is almost no effect to the home team. They pretty much score as many goals in either case. The road team is mostly unaffected except the third period. In this case, the road team scores far less goals when ahead by 2 in the third period. Basically, the road team takes a huge chance here, by sitting on that lead.
Now, the “100 seconds to go”, or when the trailing team is likely to pull the goalie. Basically, the trailing team doubles its chances of scoring a goal, but quadruples its chances of allowing one. They rely on the fact that they have that one extra possession to score the goal before they allow it.
Fascinating stuff.
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