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Thursday, August 13, 2009
Save percentage following rebounds
Gabe shows how often a goalie makes a saves, depending on how long ago the previous shot was (i.e., rebounds). Basically, if it’s been at least 4 seconds since the previous shot, then either it’s not a rebound, or the memory of the rebound is gone (everyone is now ready for the new shot). For the first three seconds, it’s around a .15 to .20 increase in goals allowed per shot, which is enormous. The goalie is so out-of-position following the rebound that their goals allowed per shot, around .40 goals per shot, is greater than their goals allowed rate on penalty shots. The only benefit they get is that their defensemen, who may also be out-of-position can clear some of those rebounds before a shot goes off.
Note: I also saw a very similar chart by mc79hockey.com . I can’t find it right now, but I’ll link to it when I do.
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