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Monday, July 20, 2009
Sanchez and the race to 600 PA
Interesting offer:
Sanchez was offered $10 million over two seasons, a deal contingent upon him shelving the $8.4 million he will be owed in 2010 if he makes 600 plate appearances this season.
Sanchez currently has 356 PA. That puts him 244 short. Since he became a regular, he’s averaged 4.15 PA per game. That puts him at around 59 games to play. His WAR is currently standing at 2.6, which puts him right in line with his 2005-07 production.
In short, Sanchez is a non-injury away from being guaranteed 8MM for 2010 (it’s a bit higher due to performance clauses). Basically, his current contract is probably worth around 7MM for 2010. That is, if he’s guaranteed 8MM if he gets to 600 PA, but he needs 244 more PA to make that happen, then if you try to figure out the chances of him getting injured (or his talent collapsing), we can say that we’re say 90% sure he’ll get there. So, the offer for 2011 is really a 3MM deal. That of course is very low. Even if it should be on par with the very low offers of this past season (say the 5MM, like Abreu and Hudson), then the offer should have been 2/12.
Regardless, the offer is going to look low if it’s a multi-year deal. In 2011, the economy is not going to be like 2009. That’s what Sanchez is betting on.
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