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Saturday, August 07, 2010
SABR40 Marcel outliers
Hey cool, it’s almost like I was there!
Outliers:
Hank Greenberg was projected to hit 42 hr in 1941. Got hurt and only hit 2.
Lou Gehrig, same thing.Babe Ruth and Harmon Killebrew also did it the other way.
Andres Galaragga1993 up.
Sooo, if you took all the marcels, which year would be the year that would be the most off from the projections?
The audience shouted out many possibilities, 1969, 1931, and many others. But the worst? Was 1981. Strike year. Severe decrease because of lost ABs. But that also gave a ringing effect.
Some other years 1931 definitely stuck out and 1947 as well, but they average out to zero.
1969 does show way up in slugging.
1946 drops. Hitters who stayed then suddenly had to face pitchers coming back from the war.
I would have gone with 1969, maybe 1993 and 1987. Really, any year that showed the biggest jump from the previous 3 years in runs per game. We can go to Sean’s site, and do a 5-4-3 weighting. Hmmm… 1970 was an even more outlier. 1920, 1921, 1911.
Anyway, I really liked what Andy did there. Good job!
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