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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Sabermetric radio preparation
That’s where you come in. I’m like Joe Girardi in that I’m big on preparation, and hate being caught off guard. I’d like to solicit our readers to help me bolster my arguments. Tell what are some of the most common rebuttals you’ve come up against when explaining these stats to people who are completely unfamiliar with them, and how you counter their arguments. It’s radio, so short and succinct answers work best.
Let’s see, just like the Bush White House supplies Faux News with talking points (no political talk in this thread, posts will be deleted on sight… my capriciousness let me throw in that jab), so to will we supply some of the talking points:
1. We’re trying to figure out why; we’re constantly asking questions like how could Joe Carter have 115 RBI in a year where his SLG was under .400.
2. Those stats (RBI, ERA, etc) are good. We’re just trying to find new angles to show things in different, and sometimes better, ways.
3. We love getting surprises. We all think of Greg Maddux as someone who was able to get easy outs for his fielders. But, if we focus only on the non-fielder portion of his performance, his walks, HR, and strikeouts, virtually his entire success could be explained by his performance in that area. He was almost no better in getting outs on balls that stayed in the park than the average pitcher.
4. Streaks and hot/cold performances offer almost no predictive indications. A player’s performance in the past few years offers far more value in terms of predictions than a player’s 20 at bats against a certain pitcher, or a player’s hitting in the last two weeks. Players know this, but fans seem to be disbelieving.
First two are short. What do you guys got?
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