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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Ryan Howard
2010 - old contract
2011 - old contract
2012 - needs 5 wins at 5.5MM$ per win
2013 - needs 4.5 wins at 6MM$ per win
2014 - needs 4 wins at 6.5MM$ per win
2015 - needs 3.5 wins at 7MM$ per win
2016 - needs 3 wins at 7.5MM$ per win
That total for 2012-2016 is 20 wins and 127.5MM$. That’s what he has to deliver, assuming the cost per win is correct.
In order to justify Joe Mauer’s contract, I have his 2012-2016 at 19 wins and 119MM$.
Basically, that’s what the Phillies did: they valued Ryan Howard as much as the Twins valued Joe Mauer. Does that make any kind of sense?
Well, from 2006-2009, Ryan Howard had, according to Fangraphs, 19 wins. Mauer had 23 wins. Baseball Projection has Mauer at 28 and Howard at 16 wins. So, Mauer was a better player the last 4 years, and we expect him to be a better player going forward. Not to mention that Howard is closer to the downward slope to his career than Mauer is. (Yes, yes, Mauer is a catcher. Repeat these steps with other players if you want.)
You can justify Howard’s contract by presuming a certain talent level or presuming a certain discount rate. You cannot justify his contract relative to the superstar market. Because, whatever justification you are going to use on Howard, you are going to have to use it on all the other players as well.
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