from Amazon
Monday, May 17, 2010
Runs Expectancy table… for college
Here it is from Boyd’s World. Could we have come up with something like that? Let’s see, if we try my Markov calculator. You really should put in the actual stats, but I’m going to take a shortcut and wing it. We know there are .63 runs per inning, so I’m going to change the AB value until I get that. Change AB to 34.7, and you get the RE chart for 5.68 runs per 9 inning MLB game. Ideally, you would set the HR and BB and SO numbers to match to actual college, but, I just want to do something quick. (Hint: someone ELSE do the work until then.)
Let’s compare what Boyd has to what Markov says. At bases empty, it’s pretty similar. It’s higher in mine, almost certainly because MLB has more HR than college. (Just guessing.) With one man on, the two charts are pretty similar. Indeed, the two charts are all pretty similar except:
Runners on 2b and 0 outs is much higher in college than Markov would say. Same thing with runners on 3B and 0 outs. And 2b, 3b, 0 outs. That is where the interesting thing looks. I’d like to know how college plays in those states.
If Boyd is out there, I’d like to see the batting lines by the 24 base out states.
***
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date