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Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Run values of events
This was from Fangraphs, 2006:
Runs Result Description
1.45 Inside the Park HR
1.39 Home Run
1.09 Triple
0.89 Sacrifice With Error
0.81 Sacrifice Fly Error
0.77 Double
0.74 Sacrifice Fielder’s Choice
0.72 Ground Rule Double
0.49 Dropped Third Strike Error
0.47 Single
0.47 Error
0.42 Assist With Error
0.39 Advanced
0.38 Interference
0.35 Dropped Third Strike (PB)
0.35 Hit By Pitch
0.34 Double Steal
0.32 Walked
0.30 Bunt
0.28 Balk
0.28 Passed Ball
0.26 Wild Pitch
0.24 Dropped Third Strike (WP)
0.24 Error
0.23 Caught Stealing With Error
0.18 Intentionally Walked
0.16 Stolen Base
0.12 Defensive Indifference
0.04 Advance On Interference
-0.08 Sacrifice Fly
-0.16 Fielder Choice
-0.18 Additional Base
-0.20 Sacrifice
-0.23 Bunt Out
-0.24 Ground Out
-0.27 Dropped Third Strike
-0.28 Fly Out
-0.28 Strikeout Looking
-0.29 Batter Interference
-0.29 Dropped Third Strike (Taken)
-0.30 Foul Fly Out
-0.30 Strikeout
-0.31 Advance On Throw
-0.31 Fielder’s Choice
-0.33 Line Drive
-0.35 Touched By Own Batted Ball
-0.40 Caught Stealing Double Play
-0.45 Tagged Out
-0.45 Caught Stealing
-0.49 Picked Off
-0.55 Infield Fly
-0.58 Forced Out
-0.72 Non-Force GDP
-0.85 Grounded Into Double Play
-1.06 Double Play
-1.32 Fielder’s Choice GIDP
-1.40 Triple Play
The regular HR and inside the parker should obviously be the same. But, since this is empirical, this means that there were more runners on base when the inside the parker was hit. Triple play looks wrong. This could only happen with, at worst, men on 1b, 2b, 0 outs. The run value there should be around 1.5 to 1.6 (unless the TP happened in a pitcher’s park or something). In any case, you get a good feel for how things work.
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