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Thursday, August 19, 2010
Run values by the 24 base-out states
I’ve posted this chart in the past. Colin has done something along those lines. What he did was focus only on contacted balls (not sure if home runs are included, I think they are; walks, strikeouts, hit batters are excluded), and then broke up the various outs (infield air, infield ground, outfield) into their own run values.
Here is what he shows:
OUT Bases Safe Out_IF_Air Out_IF_Gr Out_OF
0 ___ 0.44 (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)
1 ___ 0.30 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
2 ___ 0.15 0.07 0.07 0.07
0 1__ 0.76 (0.20) (0.22) (0.18)
1 1__ 0.57 (0.14) (0.13) (0.14)
2 1__ 0.38 (0.05) (0.05) (0.05)
0 _2_ 0.72 (0.24) (0.09) (0.17)
1 _2_ 0.75 (0.19) (0.15) (0.17)
2 _2_ 0.80 (0.15) (0.15) (0.15)
0 12_ 1.05 (0.43) (0.30) (0.30)
1 12_ 1.02 (0.34) (0.37) (0.31)
2 12_ 1.03 (0.27) (0.27) (0.27)
0 __3 0.61 (0.22) (0.14) -
1 __3 0.65 (0.36) (0.13) 0.17
2 __3 0.88 (0.20) (0.20) (0.20)
0 1_3 0.92 (0.39) (0.20) (0.10)
1 1_3 0.91 (0.53) (0.31) 0.10
2 1_3 1.11 (0.33) (0.33) (0.33)
0 _23 0.90 (0.43) (0.18) (0.08)
1 _23 1.07 (0.54) (0.08) 0.01
2 _23 1.49 (0.42) (0.42) (0.42)
0 123 1.24 (0.59) (0.46) (0.23)
1 123 1.35 (0.67) (0.66) (0.13)
2 123 1.76 (0.55) (0.54) (0.55)
I’m not sure what is going on with the out values. It seems like he’s turned the relative run values into some sort of “total” run values by adding a fixed run value to each out. That might be the reason you end up seeing a positive run value for 2 outs and bases empty.
Anyway, the interesting part is where the different kinds of ball in play outs differ at each base out state. As you’d expect, the biggest ones are any of the states with runner on 3B and 1 out. The difference between an outfield flyout and an infield groundout is around .30 runs, which is enormous.
The next set of big differences are states with runner on 3B and 0 outs. In those cases, the gap is about .10 to .15 runs.
Among the non-3B states, it’s runner on 2B 0 outs, where the infield ground out is .08 runs more impactful than an outfield fly, hence the value to moving runners over.
Finally, the DP-killer is for runners on 1B 0 outs, and runners on 1B,2B 1 out, where the cost of the ground out is .05 runs more than the fly out.
In all other states, the difference between a ground out and a fly out is zero. Which is a surprise. I would have expected a difference also with runner on 1B 1 out, but apparently the cost of the ground out is less than that of a fly out. That seems hard to explain. Perhaps bunts are biasing the results? I don’t know. Colin also shows that the number of outs for each play at each state, and the ground out here gets 1.46 outs, and the fly out gets 1.02 outs. So, I don’t see how this makes sense. Unless he’s somehow showing the credit as -.13 runs per out, rather than -.13 runs for the groundball outs in total?
Anyway, good stuff overall.
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Note to BPro webmaster: please remove P tags in the tables. It makes it impossible to copy/paste.
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