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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Run Support
Of Washburn’s 122 starts dating back to 2005, his team has scored two runs or fewer in 60 of them. That’s just bizarre. It’s almost statistically impossible, given that we’re talking about two franchises and a horde of different lineups playing alongside him. As a random thing, the odds would be astronomical of this happening again and again. It’s not like he’s swinging a bat and influencing the outcome. Just the worst case of luck baseball has seen in an awfully long time.
I don’t have my data with me, but I estimate that two or fewer runs are scored 25% of the time. So, we’d expect that someone with 120 games to have 2-run or less run support about 30 times or so. One standard deviation, given 120 games, is 4.7 games. So, if Baker’s numbers are accurate (*), Washburn’s run support is over six standard deviations from the mean. That’s like a one-in-a-bazillion chance of happening by luck.
(*) Is he using runs while Washburn is in the game, or runs in the game that Washburn started? Huge difference of course.
Hat tip: Matt.
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