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Friday, October 07, 2011
Run Expectancy, Pitchers and Pinch Hitters
Colin posted a run expectancy chart for the 9th slot, when the pitcher is the batter and when a pinch hitter is the batter. One thing to be careful about is that the underlying contexts won’t be similar. For example, if you have a pinch hitter at bat, this likely means that the opposing pitcher may be a pretty good reliever. So, it’s an interesting chart, but I’d like to see a more apples-to-apples comparison.
You can also see a related chart here, which I think was 1956-2007, but I’m not sure (I posted the file June 2008).
http://tangotiger.net/retrosheet/reports/re_bo.htm
BASE OUT RE_PIT RE_PH DIFF
___ 0 0.50 0.49 0.00
___ 1 0.21 0.25 0.04
___ 2 0.05 0.09 0.04
1__ 0 0.79 0.84 0.05
1__ 1 0.38 0.50 0.12
1__ 2 0.12 0.19 0.07
_2_ 0 1.02 1.13 0.11
_2_ 1 0.56 0.64 0.08
_2_ 2 0.18 0.28 0.09
12_ 0 1.46 1.40 -0.06
12_ 1 0.69 0.87 0.18
12_ 2 0.24 0.43 0.19
__3 0 1.34 1.39 0.06
__3 1 0.75 0.93 0.18
__3 2 0.22 0.35 0.14
1_3 0 1.57 1.74 0.17
1_3 1 0.86 1.10 0.24
1_3 2 0.26 0.44 0.18
_23 0 1.77 1.96 0.19
_23 1 1.10 1.34 0.24
_23 2 0.28 0.57 0.29
123 0 2.04 2.32 0.28
123 1 1.20 1.51 0.32
123 2 0.42 0.79 0.37
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