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Friday, May 06, 2011
Run Expectancy Matrix - 2011 is 1969-1992
This is the run expectancy matrix for 1969-1992, which had 0.477 runs per inning.
1B 2B 3B 0 outs 1 outs 2 outs
__ __ __ 0.477 0.252 0.094
1B __ __ 0.853 0.504 0.216
__ 2B __ 1.102 0.678 0.325
1B 2B __ 1.476 0.902 0.435
__ __ 3B 1.340 0.943 0.373
1B __ 3B 1.715 1.149 0.484
__ 2B 3B 1.967 1.380 0.594
1B 2B 3B 2.343 1.545 0.752
This is the RE matrix from BPro, for current 2011 (0.479 runs per inning):
1B 2B 3B 0 outs 1 outs 2 outs
__ __ __ 0.479 0.261 0.094
1B __ __ 0.853 0.519 0.215
__ 2B __ 1.057 0.671 0.311
1B 2B __ 1.431 0.929 0.432
__ __ 3B 1.311 0.928 0.344
1B __ 3B 1.686 1.186 0.465
__ 2B 3B 1.889 1.338 0.561
1B 2B 3B 2.264 1.596 0.683
The numbers in the two charts are quite similar, with a few gaps. Since my chart is based on games played from 1969-1992, and BPro’s chart is based on the five weeks of 2011, we can see why my chart would be expected to be more stable.
I’m not surprised that there is such strong agreement, since the run expectancy matrix is run-environment driven. It’s not like they’d both agree that you start at 0.48 runs per inning, but then be wildly off in some other base/out state.
In any case, I’ve been pleading for baseball to return to the baseball of my youth, and that’s what we are getting. Get ready for the return of small ball! Speedsters, split screens of pitchers/runners, tons of useless pickoffs (that part should be addressed if small ball is the reality), jack rabbits in the outfield. And hopefully the end of highlights that are just run-of-the-mill home runs.
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