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Monday, January 10, 2011
Reviewing Bill James minor league forecasts 1993-1995
Love the idea, really love the effort, and I enjoyed seeing the results:
There were 11 Grade A prospects (10.6%). The Grade A prospects averaged 36.0 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 3.8 WAR per season over 9.4 seasons. All 11 of these prospects played in the Majors. Two of them (Chipper Jones and Jim Thome) played in 2010.
There were 15 Grade B prospects (14.4%). The Grade B prospects averaged 10.9 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 2.2 WAR per season over 5.0 seasons. All 15 of these prospects played in the Majors (although one of them, Steve Gibralter, recorded only five career plate appearances). None of them played in 2010.
There were 44 Grade C prospects (42.3%). The Grade C prospects averaged 1.6 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 1.0 WAR per season over 1.6 seasons. Of these 44 prospects, all but two played (Tracy Sanders, Juan Delarosa) played i the Majors. Six others recorded 100 or fewer career plate appearances. One of them (Matt Stairs) played in 2010.
There were 34 Grade D prospects (32.7%). The Grade D prospects averaged 2.2 WAR over the course of their respective careers — or, 1.5 WAR per season over 1.5 seasons. Of these 34 prospects, all but three (Doug Robbins, Rex de la Nuez, and John Finn) played in the Majors. Nine other recorded 100 or fewer career plate appearances. None of them played in 2010.
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