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Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Replacement-level to the extreme
This is where replacement-level discussion should stop. Rob correctly noted:
The most serious issue with this analysis is that it over-values teams like Canada. Why? Ice-time. Since the players on Team Canada are predominantly first-line NHL players, their GVT is based on receiving a lot of premium ice-time. If they’re all on the same team, only a select few of them will be able to enjoy significant ice-time and, therefore, be able to contribute at such a high level.
At this point, when I look at either chart Rob has, they are meaningless to me. Adding up replacement-level numbers is fine to arrive at team totals with one immutable condition: you have to ensure that the playing time adds up as well. Lots of people like to add up WAR and VORP and not GVT to arrive at a team total. You cannot do that unless you ensure that the ice time or PA or IP also adds up properly. Rob explicitly notes this, and tries to figure a way around it.
I don’t know why he simply didn’t specifically adjust the ice time.
Another problem, also as he noted, is trying to come up with a reasonable true talent number for each player. It’s hard to do if you focus only on one season of data, and possibly shortchange non-NHL players.
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