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Friday, January 22, 2010
Regression toward the mean, chart style
If you want to see what a regression chart looks like:
Basically, it goes like this: take the people who scored the best at something, a test, goals, home runs, whatever. ANYTHING. If you ask them to repeat that same exercise they, as a group, will fall somewhere between that particular subgroup average, and the whole population average. In this case, we have shooters who scored at least 20% of their shots. Say their group mean was 25%. So, what was their group mean after they took another 100 shots? Well, this subgroup scored at 13.8%. This 13.8% really represents the true scoring rate for the group. That is the best indication of the true talent level of the group.
(Gabe: your chart would have been better if you focused only on forwards. The two charts would have been even closer to each other. I presume most, if not all, of the guys in the top subgroup were forwards.)
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