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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Saturday, October 31, 2009

Reason number 18 why you don’t want Joe Girardi managing your favorite WS team…

By , 03:59 AM

He is thinking of playing Matsui in LF rather than Damon because Matsui is 5 for 10 so far in the Series.

The problem of course is that Damon and Matsui are almost exactly equivalent on offense and Damon is much the superior defensive player and base runner.  I ran it through my sim and the difference is around 1% for one game. Again, not a lot, but man, all those 1% mistakes (and there have been and will continue to be a lot) add up.  I’m sure we’re looking at 5-10% in mistakes already, and counting.  That is huge.  How much do you think benching A-Rod for Hairston for one game costs in WE?

4.7%

What do you think people would think if Girardi did that in Game 3 on a “gut feeling” or because A-Rod was 0-8 with 6 K’s?  4.7%!  Girardi has cost his team more WE than that already!

(13) Comments • 2009/11/02
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October 31, 2009
Reason number 18 why you don’t want Joe Girardi managing your favorite WS team…