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Friday, October 16, 2009
Reader question of the day: Cabrera v Garnder
I need your help because I feel as though I am going to pull out my hair because of Girardi’s decision to start Cabrera in center over Gardner. As he did it in the ALDS, I assume it’ll be the same alignment for the ALCS.
Perhaps most important is the Yankees opponent. The Angels rank 3rd in wOBA, 3rd in OBP, 2nd in Avg, 2nd in Runs scored, 1st in BABIP, yet 11th (!) in home runs. Doesn’t this suggest that the Angels are the best team in baseball when it comes to moving base runners and scoring runs by keeping the ball in the park? If that’s the case, shouldn’t optimal defense be more important against the Angels than against any other team?
According to UZR, Gardner blows away Cabrera. While I understand that UZR has sample size issues in the single season measurement, even the naked eye over 140-150 games this season also also supports the idea that Gardner covers more ground than Cabrera thereby saving more runs.
On top of all of that, Gardner has been more productive at the plate than Melky. Both his OBP and wOBA are higher than Cabrera’s and his superior speed would make him more of a weapon all series as opposed to hypothetical pinch-hit situations. So, it’s not as if it’s a question of offense. As an aside, isn’t the idea of saving Gardner’s speed on the bench akin to keeping Cano on the bench to use as a pinch-hitter?
I know I’m a beginner, and so there has to be something that I’m missing, because I can’t understand how Girardi hasn’t caught heat for this decision, or that the issue isn’t being raised constantly. Help me out…
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