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Friday, October 09, 2009
Reader question of the day
I have a hypothetical situation I’ve been pondering. Since you’re much smarter than I, I was hoping you could take a crack at it.... I’m a Twins fan, and a bit frustrated with Bill Smith’s performance as a GM so far (mainly the Matt Garza deal). Watching the Red Sox - Angels game tonight, I couldn’t help wishing that Theo Epstein was our GM. So it got me thinking, what would I trade to have Theo be the GM of the Twins? Is there a way to quantify who would be the best player a team should give up to acquire a GM? Thanks.
It wouldn’t be so hard, as it would be complex. The process is similar to the other WOWY (with or without you) processes. I would guess that if a team has decided to go with one kind of GM (a saber-savvy one), then of those in the pool, how much of a win gain are we talking about? 3 wins of efficiency the first year? 2 the second? 1 the third? Maybe a total of 7 in a 5-yr time period? That’s an MVP. Or it should cost you about $30 MM. But, how good are we at finding such a talented GM? Is Epstein that guy?
Suppose that a replacement-level saber-savvy GM costs 2MM$ a year. If you pay Epstein 5MM$ a year for 10 years (all discounted to today’s dollars), there’s your 30MM$.
So, I guess I’ll go with that, that the market has probably already figured out how much to properly pay a GM. (I made up all my numbers. Are they reasonable? )
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