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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Reader post of the day: spread in talent
What’s a reasonable estimate of the true talent SD of team DER [editor’s note: I’ll use fielding instead]? How much variation is there?
I think I use the following for SD:
team offense: 60 runs
team defense: 60 runs
team offense: 60 runs
team fielding: 30 runs
team pitching: 52 runs
If you want to make team fielding smaller, you have to make team pitching larger, in order to make sure that the root of the sum of their squares equals the team offense SD. That is, if team pitching talent and team fielding talent are independent, then
team defense ^ 2 = team fielding ^ 2 + team pitching ^2
60^2 = 30^2 + 52^2
If for example you want to make the ratio 4:1 for offense to fielding, you would get this:
team offense: 60 runs
team fielding: 15 runs
team pitching: 58 runs
Are you prepared to say that the spread in hitting is virtually the same as the spread in pitching? I know I’m not.
What if you went the other way:
team offense: 60 runs
team fielding: 40 runs
team pitching: 45 runs
Are you prepared to say that the spread in pitching is just a bit more than the spread in fielding? I know I’m not.
So, you are going to be hard-pressed to create a model that is much different than the one I am using. And that means that the spread in offense is about twice as wide as the spread in fielding.
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