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Thursday, October 22, 2009
Reader post of the day: B-R.com and WPA
According to Baseball-Reference.com…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=riverma01&t=p&post=1
...Mariano Rivera has 10.8 WPA in 125.3 postseason innings. That’s +.086 wins/IP, which seems insane. Beyond that, in 82 postseason games, he’s had a negative impact six times. And he has decreased the Yankees’ chances of winning by 10%+ just three times, while increasing their chances of winning by 10%+ 44 times.
I wish I could put those numbers into context, but I can’t find a postseason WPA leaderboard anywhere. Even checking individual players, B-R.com only has it on pitchers’ gamelog pages (not hitters) and FanGraphs only has it on player pages back to 2002. Is there any definitive source for postseason WPA? Mariano’s 10.8 has to be the all-time record, right?
I don’t know. If I had to look, I’d say to check Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Curt Schilling, and John Smoltz. So, let me see what B-R.com says about them. Let’s see… Gibson is +1.6 in 81 IP (+.178 per 9IP, or a .678 win%). Koufax is +1.6 in 57 (+.253 per 9IP, or .753 win%) . Schilling is +4.1 in 133 IP (+.277 per 9IP or a .777 win%). Smoltz is +3.6 in 209 IP (+.155 per 9IP or a .655 win%).
Those were my four best guesses. Mariano Rivera is +.776 per 9IP, or a 1.276 win% (which of course makes no sense on its own). The winner will undoubtedbly be a reliever. I don’t know who that could be though. Eck? Wetteland? Tekulve? Someone want to check?
Note: when you use b-r.com, click on the first row, then the last row, and tada, it’s calculated for you! One of the best things on the web is that feature.
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