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Monday, August 10, 2009
Raul Ibanez at the unreal Citizen’s Bank Park
I love the work here:
However:
Obviously, Raul’s opposite field power has been greatly increased by moving to CBP. If we were to take away these 6 HRs from Ibanez this season, and turn them into outs, Ibanez’s wOBA would go from .416 to .385, a difference of 10 runs, or nearly a win. Obviously, the impact is not quite this much; some of those hits would be home runs in away parks or may fall for doubles. I think (subjectively) that impact is closer to 5 runs, which would put Ibanez at 3.2 wins for the season so far. Still fantastic, but it is important to remember not all of Ibanez’s increased production is real.
Great work, but I don’t like the very very last word. The HR are real in that they actually happened. I’d prefer that the author say that he disproportionately leveraged CB Park. Note that Andres Galaragga disproportionately leveraged Coors, but when he left Coors, he still put up crazy numbers. His 1997 season with Rox and 1998 with the Braves are indistinguishable. I know tons of people said before the 1998 season that his Rox performance was not “real”.
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