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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Saturday, June 12, 2010

Question of the night (day)…

By , 10:28 PM

In the TOR/COL game, it was the bottom of the 7th, 1 out, runners on 1 and 2, COL leading 1-0, and the starting pitcher, Hammels, due up for COL.  The manager let him hit to execute the sac bunt.  You see this all the time, a manager letting a mediocre starting pitcher hit in the 6th or 7th of a close game, in a high leverage situation.

Anyway, was this a good or bad play, and by how much, WE-wise?  Quantitative answers only!  Please show your work!  To help, Hammels had thrown around 86 pitches.  The COL bullpen had not thrown any pitches on Friday night, on Wenesday and Thursday, they threw 3 innings on each of those days, and the closer, Corpas, was most likely going to throw the 9th in a save situation.  In the 8th, Toronto had 2 righties and then two lefties coming up, the 7-1 hitters.  I’ll even help with Hammels overall true talent:  Chone, Oliver, Steamer, and Zips, all have him as around .2 runs worse than a league average pitcher.

(26) Comments • 2010/06/15 • SabermetricsIn-game_StrategyPitchers
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June 12, 2010
Question of the night (day)…