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Thursday, April 02, 2009
QALPAP
This is mostly, but not strictly, a post about Fantasy valuations.
I gave my recipe a few years ago here in post 66: QALPAP (quatlus above last player at position).
In preparation of the Forecast Challenge 2009, where I was going to post the Marcel/Community Fantasy dollars, I have some doubts. This came about because, to my surprise, there was a falloff between the 39th and 40th catcher. A huge one. It was my expectation that I would always get a nice curve at the tail-end, as I’d start getting a bunch of players at the end.
This however did not happen in this isolated case.
Then I got to thinking some more: my top 40 catchers won’t be the same as everyone else’s top 40. Indeed, I’d expect that perhaps 5-10 of my 40 catchers to not be drafted (and similarly, 20% or so at each position class). So the “last player at position” should really be “last player expected to be selected at position). QALPAP is now QAlpetbsAP.
This got me thinking some more. If your opponent is doing a really crappy job at selecting players, such that perhaps the 15th, and 20th and 25th and 26th and 29th catchers ended up not being selected (your process gave you the #1 and #14 catchers), surely this must affect the entire valuation process, won’t it? After all, if you know (or could have predicted) that the 15th catcher would still be left standing, there’s no reason for you to have selected the #14 catcher as high as you did. So, it’s not only the “last player expected to be selected”, but “best player not expected to be selected”. So, we really have QAbpnetbsAP.
The problem is trying to model that. I’m at the point where what I’m thinking about doing is taking the average quatlus of the bottom half of the position pool (#21 to #40th catchers, in a 20-team, 2 catcher league), and set that as my baseline “best player not expected to be selected”.
Thoughts?
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