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Monday, October 26, 2009
Proof that fans don’t believe in small sample size
Suppose that the playoffs were constructed so that the 8 playoff-bound teams, for the playoffs only, had to select 25 players each from the 8 playoff teams. That is, a complete draft where all the playoff players are being redistributed among the eight teams, solely for the playoffs. Knowing how much of a choker ARod has been in the playoffs entering 2009, and knowing how CC is not himself in the playoffs, in what round would these players be selected? And would Jeter be the #1 selection in the draft? (Yanks draft first.)
Now, suppose that you get to redraft once more when you are down to 4 teams. Would Nick Swisher be the last player selected in the draft? Exactly at what point would he be selected?
How you answer this question tells you EXACTLY how much you weight recent performance, playoff performance, current regular season, and career.
Of all the decisions, the most interesting one to me would be where Mariano Rivera would get selected.
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