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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Proof of the modified OPS
Let’s for the sake of argument start by saying that it’s better to have a player’s performance broken down by its components (hits, walks, HR, etc) than for it to be first aggregated into two metrics (OBP, SLG) which is then aggregated into one metric (OPS). We accept that OPS (1*OBP + 1*SLG) is a shortcut, a lazy way to get to what a component analysis would give us.
Let’s also, for the sake of argument, presume that the best meteric for components is Linear Weights. It’s fairly straightforward. A single is worth .47 runs, a double is .77, a triple is 1.04, a HR is 1.40, and a walk or hit batter is .32 runs. The out (meaning at bat minus hit plus sac fly) is worth -.276 runs. And when you apply this to MLB 2009, you get a total of zero runs. That is, the positive events matches to the negative events.
Linear Weights, in some form or other, is supported by top baseball sites like http://www.Baseball-Reference.com, http://www.Retrosheet.org and http://www.Fangraphs.com . The ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia, edited by the inventor of Linear Weights, Pete Palmer, also supports it. Top known analysts, such as MGL, are huge proponents of it. Top little-known analysts, like Patriot, are believers. And, as perhaps the biggest champion of Linear Weights (even bigger than Pete I would say), I am completely on board with Linear Weights. When I think about baseball, Linear Weights guides me half the time. We’re believers.
If we apply the above Linear Weights equation to the batting stats of the 2009 season, we get these leaders:
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