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Sunday, January 29, 2012
Prince Fielder comparables
I looked at the last 10 firstbaseman (born not later than 1973) to have had at least 10 WAR from age 25-27. These 10 players averaged 13.8 WAR, right in line with Prince’s 14:
WAR Born Player
17.7 1973 Todd Helton
10.9 1973 Mike Sweeney
14.8 1970 Jim Thome
19.4 1968 Jeff Bagwell
18.3 1968 Frank Thomas
17.3 1964 Will Clark
13.2 1964 Rafael Palmeiro
15.2 1963 Fred McGriff
10.9 1963 Mark McGwire
10.1 1963 Cecil Fielder
I got a chuckle at #10 on the list.
Anyway, how did these guys do over the next 9 seasons? I added a column to the above chart called “WAR9”, which is the number of WAR from age 28-36:
WAR9 WAR Born Player
37.2 17.7 1973 Todd Helton
10.6 10.9 1973 Mike Sweeney
40.5 14.8 1970 Jim Thome
50.6 19.4 1968 Jeff Bagwell
33.9 18.3 1968 Frank Thomas
26.0 17.3 1964 Will Clark
41.9 13.2 1964 Rafael Palmeiro
23.1 15.2 1963 Fred McGriff
43.9 10.9 1963 Mark McGwire
4.8 10.1 1963 Cecil Fielder
The average is 31 WAR. If we start a player at 4.8 WAR, and gradually accelerate his aging, we get this kind of aging chart, along with the cost per win (starting at 5MM$ per win, and increasing at 5% each year):
WAR $perW Value
4.8 $5.00 $24.0
4.7 $5.25 $24.7
4.5 $5.51 $24.8
4.2 $5.79 $24.3
3.8 $6.08 $23.1
3.3 $6.38 $21.1
2.7 $6.70 $18.1
2.0 $7.04 $14.1
1.2 $7.39 $8.9
The total comes in at 9 years, 183MM$.
If we take out Cecil Fielder (for whatever reason you want), the other 9 comps average out 34.2 wins, and that would work out to 201MM$.
So, we can create some reasonable scenario where the overpay is some 13MM$ to 33MM$, rather than the 50-100MM$ being discussed.
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