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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Poz: meet Marcel
Poz points out:
But I would say that there are two gigantic mistakes I often make when trying to make baseball predictions … and I don’t think I’m the only one who does it.
1. I look only at the last season and not at the last TWO or THREE seasons.
2. I underestimate the effect of age on a player’s performance.
...
It’s easy to forget that — or at least I forget — that in the long career of a baseball player, a SEASON can be a small sample size.
Well, Poz, those three things are THE THREE most important things to forecasting. Those are not 3 of the 5 or 7 most important things, but they are the three. Marcel The Monkey Forecasting system says:
It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
How accurate is Marcel? It’s as accurate as anything out there, be it ZiPS or PECOTA or whathaveyou. Except Chone and a few other systems. In any case, it holds its own very well. And Poz is basically saying that he’d like to have a forecasting system where the basics done for him. Poz: meet Marcel.
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