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Saturday, October 18, 2008
Positioning your outfield (and infield) according to the game situation
On ESPN.com, on Keith Law’s blog, he was writing about the TB/BOS game last night and mentioned that Gross was too shallow in RF with Drew at the plate in the 9th inning.
One of the readers mentioned in the comments section that he should have been shallow in order to throw out the runner on a hit.
Keith responded, “he should have been playing in an average fielding position. Getting the out is what was most important.”
Now, I don’t know whether he was playing too shallow or not, only because I don’t know what a normal, optimal position in that park, with that batter and pitcher, and under those weather conditions are (across all game situations), but I wrote:
“That’s wrong, Keith. It is fairly easy to figure out whether to play a fielder at regular depth, closer, or further. Regular depth, of course, is defined as the average position of a fielder across all scores, innings, batters, etc.
For any particular batter/pitcher/fielder/weather/park combo, “regular depth” is defined as the average depth across all score/innings/outs.
Now, regular depth assumes that the double is worth around 65% more than the single, and triple a little more than double the single.
Whenever the ratio of the win value of the single to the win value of the extra base hit is higher than average, because of the game situation, you play closer. When it is the opposite (such as in a “no doubles or triples defense,” you play deeper. Period.
In addition to that, when there is an important runner on second that you need to keep from scoring on a single, you play shallower as well (everything else being equal of course).
Therefore, in the situation last night, where, a) the single is worth almost as much as the extra base hit (they both win the game for the Sox, the single slightly less so), and b) on a hard single you need to try and prevent the runner from scoring, there is absolutely no doubt that you play MUCH shallower than average.”
I criticize managers all the time for not knowing or pretending (thinking) that they know stuff like that. But a smart-guy, analyst who worked for a team as a sabermetrician and is now one of the top writers for ESPN.com? Come on, Keith, this is not rocket science!
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