from Amazon
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Poisson soccer
I just coded a Poisson program to figure out the win% from any point in the game, for two teams of differing abilities. The only constraint I put in is that no team can comeback (or lose) a game with a 5-goal differential, and no team can score more than 2 goals in a minute. I did this only because I needed to set some limit, and those seemed like reasonable threshholds.
Anyway, as a first step, here is the win% to start the game for two teams, based on their expected goals scored and goals allowed.
G1 G2 Win%
2.0 1.0 0.712
1.5 1.0 0.618
2.0 1.5 0.602
If someone has home/road numbers, I’d love to see it. My guess is that the home team will win 60% of their games.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date