from Amazon
Monday, February 22, 2010
Players improve the second year of a 2-yr contract?
A rather interesting point that Matt brings up:
But did you know that most players receiving two-year deals in recent years actually do better in the second year of their contract? Players who receive three- and four-year deals produce similarly in the first two years of their deals as well, instead of declining as many people believe.
And he is quite correct that you can infer talent based on how teams pay for talent (with a certain level of uncertainty, obviously… I mean, Carlos Lee, Juan Pierre, etc):
When evaluating team decisions, we cannot look at these choices as natural experiments. Looking at Johnny Damon’s PECOTA projection without knowing that teams have passed on him one by one will probably overstate his value. Looking at Chone Figgins’ without knowing that the Mariners’ front office gave him four years will probably understate his value. The reality is that once we saw Pat Burrell struggle to find anything better than a two-year contract from the Rays, we should have wondered if teams knew something bad about him that wasn’t common knowledge, especially because the Phillies and their strong scouts couldn’t hide from him fast enough after letting him lead their World Series parade on Halloween in 2008. It seems like all 30 teams realized he was unlikely to repeat his 4.4 WARP* from 2008.
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