THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, April 22, 2011

Play-in game

A few months back, I made the case that the wild-card (i.e., the 4th team), was a perfectly reasonable thing to have in MLB.  That’s because the average wild card was, on average, better than the division leader of the worst division.  The problem is that the 5th best team is not so lucky, and they would be, on average, worse than the division leader of the worst division.

Bringing in that 5th team will mean that the competition won’t be as strong overall.  But, as Tommy reminds us, it’s not like the 162-game season is an accurate reflection of talent anyway.  It’s alot of luck.  And so, what’s another team to add more luck. 

We’re used to this in the NHL, seeing 16 teams.  And if you followed the NHL playoffs this past week, you would realize that: WHO CARES!  This is FANTASTIC hockey.  This has been great.  The action is non-stop, never a dull moment (a far cry from the regular season).  And this is round #1 with 16 teams.  Why in the world would I say: “You know what, give me LESS exciting hockey.”

The only reason you even have the thought is that you think that the regular season is supposed to “mean something” in terms of eventually winning the Stanley Cup.  So, you think 8 teams is enough out of the 30 in the regular season to “earn” the playoffs.

Again, who cares who actually deserves a chance to win 16 games for the Stanley Cup.  I’m perfectly happy having half the teams being given the chance, because they still have to win 16 games.  Heck, I’d even put 24 teams in the playoffs.  For teams 9 through 24, give them a best 2 of 3 (over 4 nights), with all the games played at the home of the better seeded team.  The #1 through #8 are given a 5-day bye, well-rested, and ready to face whoever comes out of that play-in tournament.  The best of all?  More playoff hockey!  And, by doing that, you are making it even more important to finish in the top 8 in the regular season.

You can even construct a system where all the teams make the playoffs, by tiering the teams so that the regular season means something, but you get playoff hockey.

And, the same applies in baseball.  I’d love to have all 30 teams in there.  How could that work?  You take the bottom 12 teams, and given them a one-game play-in.  After that one game, you are down to 24 teams.  Then, the bottom 16 (of the 24) go into a best 2-of-3 play-in (all at the home of the better seeded team).  These two play-in tournaments occur with no rest days.  Now you’ve got 8 well-rested teams, and 8 teams that have played 2, 3, or 4 games.  All the games of the third round are also all played a the home field of the better seeded team, and you make it best 3 of 5.

After all that, you are now down to 8 teams.

I forgot to say: yes, I know I’m crazy to dare suggest that the virginal MLB playoffs be touched in any way.  That any suggestion to change MLB is immediately met with resistance, regardless of how good the suggestion is.  That inertia is really tradition, and we should never touch tradition.  And how life was better in the old days.  If you are of the inertia mindset, please, don’t post here.  Do a google for Selig tradition, and post in that forum instead.