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Monday, July 05, 2010
Pitch load effect on ERA
JC says:
Every pitch over the average output increases a pitcher’s expected earned run average in the next game by about 0.007. Based on his 5.05 E.R.A. and average of 104 pitches a game before last Friday, Jackson’s expected E.R.A. for his next start will be about 5.37.
Furthermore, the Diamondbacks gave Jackson an extra two days of rest before his next start. Rest days have only a tiny positive impact on performance, in this case lowering his expected E.R.A. to 5.34. Over all, it is a significant diminishing effect, but not so large that it should cause a manager to pull a pitcher from a no-hitter.
It’s not clear if the “average” is the league average or the player’s average.
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