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Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Picking on Joe Sheehan and BP again (like shooting fish in a barrel?)
From a recent article in the Premium Content:
From what I was saying on Sunday:
That’s what we might be in for this month; the Rockies and Giants, perhaps the Rangers, and the tiny chance that a division leader will stumble or that a second-place team will go 2007 Rockies or 2007 Phillies on the league.
Which invites the question: What team could go 2007 Rockies (winning 14 of their last 15 to win the Wild Card) or 2007 Phillies (winning 13 of their last 17 to win the NL East) to climb from well out of the races to the playoffs? Those two teams each had the common thread that they did one thing better than anyone else in the league. For the Rockies, it was defense; that year’s Rockies were the best defensive team in the NL as measured by Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. For the Phillies, it was their offense, the best in the NL by Equivalent Average.
A team that does one thing better than everyone else seems, intuitively, like a strong candidate to make that kind of run. If you’re already the best at one element of the game, you only need to bring the rest of the team up to par or so to have a big advantage. It’s comparable to how having a roster with stars and scrubs is easier to upgrade than a roster with a bunch of slightly above-average players. The Phillies’ bullpen pitched out of its mind down the stretch that season, helping the team allow just four runs a game over its final 17 contests. Added to that league-leading offense, it was a recipe for a long stretch of wins. Similarly, the Rockies scored at least six runs in 10 of their final 15 games, pairing that with run prevention driven by that great defense. So in looking for teams that could do the same this year, I want to find teams with the best units in the game and see if any of those teams swim in the pool of fringe contenders.
Wow, his logic really made my head spin. Joe, how about the BEST OVERALL TEAM (including their schedule of course) has the best chance of firing off a bunch of wins! Arghhhhh!!!!
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