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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, March 18, 2011

People’s instincts are better than just the facts

By Tangotiger, 06:40 PM

Jared did a test of a purely human forecast against a factual or factual+human forecast, with regards to forecasting playing time.

The results:

Projecting Playing Time (Plate Appearances)
System     RMSE
Community     139  <---
Pecota     154
Steamer     156
Guru     160
Fantistics     168
FEIN     168
Chone     233
CAIRO     237
ZiPS     252
Oliver     261

The community is you guys, the people who filled out my survey.

And I, for one, welcome our new blogger overlords.

(6) Comments • 2011/03/21 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting
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COMMENTS

May 26 03:03
Pete Palmer’s new book: Basic Ball

May 26 01:11
Largest demonstration in Canadian history?

May 25 23:40
“Why Kickstarter works”

May 25 19:41
What sabermetrics is NOT

May 25 16:59
Howard Stern

May 25 15:12
Do pitcher’s reach back for velocity when needed?

May 25 12:51
Chad Curtis

May 25 11:26
Lack of hustle during a game

May 25 10:58
Rooting for laundry

May 25 02:38
NFLPA lawsuit against collusion

THREADS

March 18, 2011
People’s instincts are better than just the facts

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