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Saturday, April 09, 2011
Pedro Feliciano, Shutdowns and Meltdowns
In 2010, Feliciano had a pretty good season, according to the seasonal numbers: above average ERA, FIP, xFIP, WPA. But he had 17 shutdowns and 13 meltdowns. The average is 2:1, and anything close to 1:1 is replacement level.
We can look at his gamelog, export to Excel, and sort by WPA. In his 17 shutdowns, he had a total of +1.8 WPA. In his 13 meltdowns, it was a total of -2.2 WPA. In all his 62 other games (basically classified as “neutral” as far as shutdowns and meltdowns), he was at +0.8 wins. Ideally, he would have been at zero. But, he had alot of “good” games, but not “shutdown” games, but the shutdown stat gives him no credit for it. This is what happens when you set arbitrary threshholds, and give out binary outcomes.
But, if you set it too low, then all those great +.20 win games get the same value ("1") as those barely above average +.02 win games.
I agree with Raymond that it’s dangerous to rely on SD and MD to give you too strong a picture of a performance. Like anything, you have to be careful how you use it. Use SD and MD to start your analysis, and then see why it doesn’t seem to add up.
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