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Friday, February 26, 2010
PECOTA updates
This is of course the kind of stuff I like to see.
* Depth charts - John Perrotto collected a series of depth charts from the beat writers for each team, with their opinions about how the lineups would look come April. I’ve allowed those to influence, and in some cases strongly influence, my thinking on various players; I’ve also rejected it in places where the result simply made no sense. The beat writers were focused primarily on an Opening Day lineup, while I’m trying to establish patterns for the entire season - I can readily believe that teams would be stupid enough to start Sucky Player A in April, but don’t think that they’ll continue sticking with him in July.
I’d like to see those that Clay disagreed on, and how it compares to what the Fangraphs Fans think. Is there any chance Clay or BPro can provide that list? We can test to see if Clay did the right thing.
And I agree with his general point about individual v team, which is basically that the median forecast is going to be higher than what the mean forecast should be (if you include injuries).
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