from Amazon
Thursday, February 19, 2009
PECOTA cards
This is Ryan Howard. You’ll notice some inconsistencies, which I can only presume is because of the handoff between Nate and Clay. For example, Howard’s 50th percentile PA forecast is 570, with his 10th to 90th percentile range as 548-594. The weighted mean forecast is 631 PA. His Projected Playing Time is 90%, or 640 PA.
His 7-year forecast is interesting. He is expected to go from a forecast of 631 PA at age 29 to 530 PA at age 35 for a total of 4059 PA. I don’t know how he gets a bump at age 32. I have a pretty simple model, and my totals for those 7 years is 4065. So, weirdly enough, if I start him off at 631 PA, we both end up with identical totals, except mine is a smooth drop, while PECOTA has him bouncing up and down a bit before settling down. Interesting.
The MORP looks wrong, as it seems to apply the old MORP equation on the new WARP data. I think.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date