THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, February 07, 2011

PECOTA 2011

By Tangotiger, 10:39 AM

They have been released.

Colin does something cool and compares a (stripped-down) version of PECOTA to Marcel.... for 1950-2010! And shows both to be in a dead heat. Which is good, because it shows that the core part of PECOTA starts off with a strong base. Presumably all the value-added that Marcel lacks (parks, minor leagues, components and/or comparables) would bring PECOTA up to be better.

The only question is how much value-added PECOTA (and ZIPS and Chone and MGL and Oliver,etc have).

That’s my only role here really, be it with Marcel or FIP or FutureFIP: to provide a baseline by speaking for the common man. So, I love it that Colin used Marcel as he did, as that was exactly what it should have been used for.

(7) Comments • 2011/02/08 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, February 07, 2011

PECOTA 2011

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