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Thursday, January 21, 2010
Peak age in hockey
Gabe:
For my sample, I looked at all NHL players born 1962-79 who played exclusively in the NHL, AHL or IHL from Age 21 to Age 29. I assumed that AHL and IHL points were worth 45% of an NHL point. The average points-per-game at each age came out as follows:
The peak age is just slightly more than 25.... This is also roughly the same result as you get if you restrict your dataset solely to players with careers longer than 200 games and you look at the number of NHL games played at each age.
Gabe, the one method I’ve come to like the most is also the simplest. That’s the one I did a few years ago: figure out the age where the player got the most points. Show the distribution of those ages. What’s wonderful about this is that it gives equal weight to every player who ever set a skate in an NHL game. And, it’s obvious that a guy with a 1-yr career peaked when he actually made an NHL team. And, it gives an exact answer to an exact question: of players who played in the NHL, what is the age distribution of their peak performances? You can argue for points above replacement or whatnot if you like, as opposed to straight points. I’m sure if you do it either way, you’ll get the same answer.
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