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Thursday, November 26, 2009
Peak age by length of career
Phil:
28.97 for 5000 PA+
27.72 for 3000-5000 PA
26.61 for 1000-3000 PA (now significant)
Phil tells us what we would have expected: the longer the career, the later the peak. Undoubtedly, for players under 1000 PA (one or two seasons in MLB), their peak age will be under 26.61. This is obvious, since there are very few rookies in MLB who are 27 and older
So, if someone chooses a sample of players such that they have to have a long career to begin with, OF COURSE that group of players is nowhere near representative of MLB players in general: you have a biased sample. Bias. As in, if you don’t correct your bias, your results will be limited only to that particular group of players.
And here’s my WAR data from the other thread (and in that thread I also looked at ALL arcs of careers, and it is consistent with Phil’s finding above):
Here’s the total WAR of ALL nonpitchers by age, of players born since Ruth’s birth year (1895):
Age WAR
20 18
21 168
22 470
23 1,120
24 1,723
25 2,383
26 2,875
27 3,206 <--
28 3,114
29 3,042
30 2,683
31 2,453
32 2,054
33 1,580
34 1,179
35 889
36 563
37 423
38 224
39 142
40 87
41 18
42 18
43 12
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