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Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Past history v Future story
Fack Youk captures it for me:
[Halladay v Yankees is] a valid storyline. He’d pitched more than a full season’s worth against the Yankees in his career and had great results. How do you not bring that up?… Essentially, what you are looking at when you try to analyze Halladay’s career stats against the Yankees (or any pitcher’s line against a certain team) are a bunch of very small samples, recorded over a very long time, and smushed together to look like one big one....But there’s two parts to this - the validity of the stats and how they are being used.… So why do we fans have the desire read about games before they happen? Why do we bother to write a preview for all 162 of them here?… More specifically, when I write a preview or read one that someone else has written, it’s because I want to have an understanding of any trends and storylines coming in and try to develop some sort of a framework that will make what’s unfolding on the field a little more coherent and interesting to me. Some of those things might be statistical, but the personalities and rivalries and the who-owns-who are compelling in their own way, even if they don’t pass the statistical smell test.
Basically, don’t conflate what has happened with what may happen, no matter how much you try to dissect each player’s career.
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