THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Saturday, November 03, 2007

PAP

PAP talk:

TSP:Do people still use the Pitcher Abuse Point System as a way to measure wear & tear on a pitcher?

Will Carroll:Absolutely. It’s the best available proxy. I’m working on a research project now that might give us a closer, game-to-game proxy, but until we can do needle biopsies or get the results of functional strength testing made public, PAP is the best system.

TSP:Why do you think it isn’t talked about more? If not why did it fail as a measurement of abuse on a pitcher’s arm?

Will Carroll:I’m not sure any statistical tool has ever had more of an effect on the game than PAP. If you look at the usage stats, we just don’t have high PAP starts any more because it measured it so well and pointed it out to the general public. Now, it’s likely something of an overreaction - some pitchers could go further and throw more, just as some could get more efficient and go deeper into games on the same pitch count.

It’s hard to take what Will says at face value.  Will’s obviously an insider.  But, he’s also very pro-BP.  So, it’s hard to know if he’s shilling, or if he’s painting an accurate picture.  I don’t mean to disparage Will, as he’s a very good guy, and I email with him every now and then.  But, I will take MGL down if I have to, and MGL would do the same against me.  I wouldn’t have it any other way.  Any fight above the belt is a fair fight.  A little bloody fight is good for the soul.  I’d like to see Will analyze PAP real hard, ask tough questions, and give some counterpunches to PAP.  Then, I’ll start to believe him more.  This is my personal opinion, and in no way means that I’m right.

I don’t know if the front offices used the results of PAP itself, or if it was simply using pitch counts on their own.  I will say that PAP has never been publicly tested on the 1970s pitchers, even though we have some good pitch count estimators out there.  I would guess that PAP would be disproven if it was tested against the 1970s pitchers.